“Russia wants Trump. Iran doesn’t. Those are clear,” security analyst and former government cybersecurity official Mike Hamilton told USA TODAY.
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The contours of those efforts are still unfolding as U.S. intelligence works to uncover and disrupt the myriad ways in which Moscow and Tehran are targeting the U.S. electorate.
Most of that covert effort involves swaying potential voters through deep fakes, bogus influencers and other propaganda on social media as they have in past election cycles.
But sweeter prizes lie behind the firewalls of the Trump and Kamala Harris presidential campaigns.
According to U.S. officials and private cybersecurity analysts, Iran used a sophisticated “spear phishing” operation to obtain and leak to prominent media outlets the Trump campaign’s internal dossier on his potential GOP running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.
Russia used a nearly identical malicious email phishing operation to help the real estate mogul come from relative obscurity to win the GOP nomination and defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton eight years ago.
But one thing is different this time around: As Russia continues to try and boost Trump, Iran – concerned about Trump’s hardline approach to its expansionist efforts and illicit nuclear program – has stolen the Kremlin’s 2016 playbook and allegedly hacked and leaked potentially embarrassing and communications, this time from the former president’s own campaign.
“The fact that we have direct knowledge of foreign governments interfering our elections, obviously, is a huge cause for concern,” said former FBI Special Agent Adam Marrè, who specialized in cyber investigations including foreign influence efforts in the U.S.
“Now, I don’t know that this is the first election where we know that multiple governments have been involved” in trying to boost or undermine candidates, Marrè told USA TODAY. But, he added, “I do think this may be the first one where we are as aware of it as a citizenry in real time.”
The Trump campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the foreign hacking competition.
So far, Russia hasn’t gone public with a “hack and leak” in the current election cycle like Iran is believed to have. But as former cybersecurity official Chris Krebs notes, there’s still plenty of time between now and election day.
“Buckle up,” Krebs, the former director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, posted on X last Saturday after the Trump hack and leak became public.
“Someone is running the 2016 playbook,” Krebs said, adding, “expect continued efforts to stoke fires in society and go after election systems. … There’s more coming & we need to be prepared for down the road.”
More:Why the US spy community is busier than ever thwarting foreign election interference
Krebs described “the Russification of Iranian info ops” as a “nasty” new wrinkle in foreign efforts to influence U.S. elections.
USA TODAY“You might not like the victim here, but the adversary gives zero Fs who you like or don’t like,” Krebs said of Trump, who fired him as head of CISA after Krebs said the 2020 election − which Trump tried to overturn − had been the safest and most secure in U.S. history.
But, he added, “They have their own objectives and guess what, you’re the target. Take this seriously.”
Trump hack vs Hillary hack
The acknowledgment of the hack by the Trump campaign came on the same day that Politico reported receiving emails from an anonymous account with documents from inside Trump’s operation, including the dossier on Vance and another prospective vice presidential candidate, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
“The Iranians know that President Trump will stop their reign of terror just like he did in his first four years in the White House,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement. “Any media or news outlet reprinting documents or internal communications are doing the bidding of America’s enemies and doing exactly what they want.”
The day before, Microsoft’s security team disclosed the hacking effort by Iran, which came shortly after the ODNI issued warnings about Iran’s efforts to meddle in the U.S. presidential election.
The Washington Post and New York Times also reported receiving similar documents. So far, no news outlet is believed to have published anything based on the purloined material.
That has prompted Clinton surrogates to complain of a double standard, since a horde of outlets published embarrassing information stolen and leaked from the email accounts of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta just weeks before the 2016 election.
While Iran works to damage the former president and GOP nominee, U.S. intelligence officials have said Russia is trying to influence the election in Trump’s favor.
More:Trump campaign says ‘hostile’ foreign sources hacked and leaked internal documents, emails
In several briefings with reporters this year, officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have shied away from what is known as direct attribution, or specifying which country is targeting which particular candidate in order to help or harm them.
They have also stressed that Russia, Iran, China and perhaps other countries will likely meddle in the election to sow divisions within the American electorate.
But in one July briefing, according to Reuters, a U.S. intelligence official told reporters, “We have not observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections, given the role the U.S. is playing with regard to Ukraine and broader policy toward Russia.”
Trump frequently has criticized U.S. military support for Ukraine and has strongly suggested he would discontinue or sharply curtail American aid if he returns to the White House.
More:Iran increasingly cyber-meddling in upcoming US election, Microsoft says in new warning
Adam Hickey, a former deputy assistant attorney general overseeing the Justice Department’s national security division, helped lead U.S. efforts to counter Russian efforts to influence U.S. elections before leaving for private practice in May 2023.
He said the competing aims of Russian and Iranian hackers over the Trump campaign marks the the beginning of such spy-vs-spy efforts when it comes to U.S. elections.
“You can imagine an election where there are hacks and dumps of both campaigns by different nations, and I think that may ultimately be the world we’re headed for,” Hickey said.
Hickey said his biggest concern isn’t that such election hacks might change enough peoples’ votes to sway an election. It’s that “you could have a lot of foreign influence that doesn’t actually change votes but causes people to think that votes were changed and leads people to not trust the outcome of the election,” Hickey said.
On Monday, as the FBI confirmed it is investigating allegations that Iranian cyber agents breached Trump’s campaign, the Harris campaign revealed it too was the victim of a failed spear phishing attack, The Washington Post reported.
“Every country has a dog in this fight,” Hamilton said. “Whether they show up like Iran did – loud, splashy – or are working under the covers like Russia, they’re all working toward a preferred outcome.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Election hacking twist: A Russia versus Iran affair over Donald Trump
